Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
